China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Survey Center 31, released in May, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 51.2%, unchanged from the previous month. From the main sub index point of view, finished goods inventory index, purchase price and ex factory price index fell more obvious, a decline of more than 1 percentage points, and the rest of the index changed little. PMI shows that the current economic operation continues to remain stable for the better.
From the short-term economic growth down to overall stabilization
From the 13 sub indices, compared with the previous month, May export orders index, the backlog of orders index, raw materials inventory index, employment index, production index is expected to rise slightly, the new orders index was flat last month, the remaining 7 index declined. In the drop index, finished goods inventory index, raw material purchase price index, ex factory price index fell by more than 1 percentage points, and the remaining 4 indexes fell within 1 percentage points.
The State Council Development Research Center researcher Zhang Liqun believes that the following April after the fall, May PMI unchanged from the previous month, and 10 consecutive months remained above the ups and downs that economic growth steady state and further clarify the situation. Economic growth is a short-term Chonggao down trend into the overall stabilization of the situation.
The overall supply and demand of the market is good. The situation of supply and demand growth is basically stable and balanced. In May, the production index was 53.4%, a slight drop of 0.4 percentage points over April, and remained above 53% for 8 consecutive months. The new orders index was 52.3%, unchanged from April, and remained above 52% for the 8 consecutive month. At present, the production index and the new orders index gap narrowed to about 1 percentage points, in a more reasonable state, is conducive to market clearing, improve supply quality, and promote rational flow of resources and optimize the allocation.
Enterprise production and management situation is good. Large enterprises PMI remain at a relatively high level, since 2016 June has been maintained at more than 51%, the last two months down slightly. Medium-sized enterprises PMI, this year has been maintained at more than 50%, in May rose significantly to 51.3%, representing an increase of 1.1 percentage points in April. Small business PMI rose for the 3 month in a row, rising to 50% in April, to 51% in May, the highest in 5 years.
The overall production and operation situation of the enterprise is good. On the one hand, it has benefited from the continuous improvement of the macroeconomic environment and the improvement of the market; on the other hand, it has benefited from favorable policies." China Logistics Information Center analyst Chen Zhongtao said, the government tax cuts on enterprises continue to increase, in 2016 the enterprise tax reduction of about 570000000000 yuan, in 2017 will be reduced by about 350 billion yuan. April 19th executive meeting of the State Council, launched a series of tax cuts, and gives a specific timetable, in order to continue to promote the real economy to reduce costs and increase stamina. These policies and measures, so that enterprises have really been affordable, and stimulate the vitality of the market.
Industry fundamentals are good. PMI trends from the industry point of view, in May, manufacturing PMI survey in 21 major categories of industry, there are 14 industries PMI rose compared to April. Among them, the consumer goods industry, PMI rose the most obvious, the overall level increased by 1.6 percentage points, reaching 53.8%. Equipment manufacturing, high-tech industries, consumer goods industry PMI to maintain a high level, reaching more than 52%, the overall stability of the manufacturing industry played a more prominent supporting role.
The leading role of consumer driven continues to increase
In May, China's non manufacturing business activity index was 54.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. Among them, the new orders, new export orders and business activity index is expected to increase QoQ, increase between 0.4 and 1.4 percentage points; the rest of the main index decline, decline between 0.1 and 1.4 percentage points.
Chinese Federation of logistics and purchasing, vice president Cai Jin believes that May manufacturing business activity index for 8 consecutive months remained above 54% Chinese, indicating that the non manufacturing business activity growth accelerated, optimization and upgrading of power to further enhance the economic structure. Especially the retail business activity index rose sharply, network consumption is related to the continuation of the rapid development trend of postal delivery activities, accommodation and scenic services and tourism related industries consumption index continued to rise, reflecting the mass consumption of active and leading role of consumer driven continue to strengthen.
One is reflecting the consumer retail business activity index and the new orders index has a substantial increase in the previous month, and 1 to May the average level over the same period last year have improved significantly; two is the consumer related activities and the postal delivery network continues the trend of rapid development, the business activity index and the new orders index rose to more than 60%; three accommodation and scenic services and tourism consumer related industries continued to be active, the index rose for two consecutive months.
"Overall, with a series of policies and measures to promote the stable economic situation, the supply side structural reforms to stimulate market activity, enhance the power of economic growth appeared in succession, the economic situation for the better since the continued steady in the second half of last year." Chen Zhongtao said, "at present, on the one hand, to keep prices stable, avoid prices fall too fast, inhibit the production and management activities of enterprises enthusiasm; on the other hand, to keep the stable market demand is stable and large enterprise production and management activities, continue to promote economic restructuring and transformation and upgrading."